Absurdonomics: Beat the market using the web's weirdest news
Filed under: News
Success and failure in the economic markets -- as Steven D. Levitt and Steven J. Dubner explain in their airport bestseller Freakonomics -- can come from just about anywhere.Just as the first people who saw the Great Depression on the horizon in 1929 were not the bankers themselves but the coloured ink producers -- who upon noticing a sudden increase in demand for Ruby Red stock-ticker fluid put two and two together and came up with total financial meltdown -- you too can be the first to spot a decent buy or sell if you know where to look.
Continue reading to see a couple of examples of our unique brand of economic analysis. NB -- Probably best not to back us financially...
As the editor of Asylum, a website which regularly deals in headlines such as "Bungee-jumping monkey saves school with flame-thrower" I put it to you that one good place to start might be the weirder end of the news.
Thanks to the web stories of the strange and absurd are more widely read than ever. You, for example, are one of half a million monthly readers of Asylum. If we run a claim that drinking Coke mixed with battery acid will give you X-Ray vision you can bet that the fortunes of the Coca Cola Co. are going to rise, sharpish.
Thus, we propose an experiment. Each week Asylum will analyse the previous week's five most popular weird news stories, and come up with five financial predictions, to make you millions.
Parasailing Donkey Stunt Prompts Animal Cruelty Inquiry
The sad and unsettlingly humourous tale of a noble Equus africanus asinus who was attached to a parachute and flung into the sky was Asylum's most popular story of last week.Clearly the Russian tourism industry will take a hit here, so we'd recommend pulling any investments you have in that area. On the other hand 1.5 million people have seen the video of the incident on YouTube, so it's possible that parasailing might gain some mindshare as a result. Most of the major parasail manufacturers are privately owned, but any company that makes or sells speedboats -- or donkeys -- could be a good bet.
On the other hand Russia Today, the TV network that own the original YouTube video, have probably had their international profile raised by all those video views. If you fancy investing in Russian state-funded media, this could be your chance.
Action: "Bought" 1000 shares of Textron (NYSE:TEX), a leading investor to the recreational marine industry, at 20.77 (July 23, 16:45 EDT)
World's Strongest, Most Expensive Beer Served Inside Dead Squirrels
The news that Scotland's largest independent brewery BrewDog have just unveiled the world's strongest beer, a 55% alcohol brew named The End of History that comes served inside a dead squirrel, sent shockwaves around Asylum's hard-drinking commenters last week.Theoretically the prices of barley and hops could rise as a result of The End of History's intense brewing process, so if you can get your hands on some then start stockpiling. Companies that sell salty snacks and headache pills could also be in for a boost -- investing in Proctor and Gamble (Pringles), Pepsico (Walkers) and Reckitt Benckiser Group (Nurofen) would all be good bets.
Unfortunately it's unlikely that even a few crates of this ultra-strong beer will make a big difference in such a huge industry. A far better gamble would be to actually invest in BrewDog themselves. The company is actually a PLC, and last year they issued shares online, raising just over £640. If they do it again we'd recommend investing -- despite their small profits a company visionary enough to create a 55% strong beer is clearly going places.
Action: "Bought" 1000 shares in Reckitt Benckiser (LON:RB) at 3,313.00 (July 26, 10:01AM)
Cows Attempt Escape From Slaughterhouse
Pull all of your money from the dairy industry. Clearly the cows are rising up as one, and plan to destroy us all.Action: "Sold" 1000 shares of DairyCrest (LON:DCG) at 408.90 (July 26, 8:00 AM)
Michael Rundle is Editor of Asylum.co.uk