Elderly woman using caneBritain could face a £800 billion pensions shock by 2050 as a result of its ageing population, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.

Analysis from the Bretton Woods institution suggests that world economies could be underestimating future longevity growth by up to three years in age.

The result is a potential retirement cost bombshell equivalent to around half of current gross domestic product (GDP) for most developed countries, the IMF said. For the UK the additional bill could be as much as 59% of 2010's GDP, the international body added.


"With the private sector ill-prepared for even the expected effects of ageing, it is not unreasonable to suppose that the financial burden of the unexpected increase in longevity will ultimately fall on the public sector," it noted.

The findings comes in pre-published chapter from the IMF's Global Financial Stability Report.

In its summery, the authors state that the elderly will "consume a growing share of resources" in the years ahead.

But the cost of providing for retirees could be bumped up considerably if people live three years longer than expected, in line with past underestimates.

To offset the additional costs, countries would need extra resources equivalent to 1-2% of GDP every year to 2050, the report suggests. But if the longevity shock occurred today, countries would have to set aside a sum of around half of their 2010 GDP to pay the extra cost over the next 40 years.

After Japan and Germany, the UK is most exposed to the potential threat. The IMF estimates that pension costs could rise by 44-59% of GDP if the population lives three years longer than expected.

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