Police computer to stop crime before it happens
Filed under: House Prices
SIMON DAWSON/AP/Press Association Images
It all sounds a bit like science fiction, so how does it work?
Crime
Property
Software
The software, known as Operation Swordfish, works on the fact that burglary victims are often the target of crime again shortly after the first incident.Research from the Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science also revealed that direct neighbours and the neighbours of neighbours are vulnerable, especially within a two week period after a burglary has taken place. Almost 30% of burglaries in Birmingham in 2011 were committed near to where a burglary had recently taken place.
Crime
Property
The software will therefore identify recent victims of burglaries. Within 24 hours they will be visited to 'target harden' the property – checking for weaknesses which would allow offenders to easily get in – such as inadequate locks on doors or windows. Locks, alarms and timers are also supplied to the homeowner in a bid to prevent a further attack on their home.
Next step
The software then identifies their immediate neighbours as potential targets, so they will also receive a follow-up visit. They will be told how burglars got in to their neighbour's home. They will be given advice and, if their house is vulnerable, they too are given 'target hardening' gadgets.The next step is for the neighbour's neighbour to be visited and occupants given advice on how to prevent themselves from becoming a victim.
Finally, the software will examine the routes that burglars take around the street network. Research has shown that there is a strong relationship between different types of streets and burglary rates.
It will then produce a map, showing vulnerable areas, and the places where crime is most likely to happen next, so officers can be deployed there.
The experiment
Superintendent Alex Murray, who is leading the Predictive Policing experiment, said: "The experiment is about putting the oil where the squeak is – by that I mean we hope to reduce the number of burglaries and the number of repeat victims by working smarter and putting our officers exactly where they are needed.""We never underestimate the impact that a burglary has on the victim and this tactic will hopefully predict where the next burglary is going to take place allowing us to prevent it before it happens."
The experiment is being trialled across half of Birmingham until next summer, to understand how effective the software and the approach is. The half of the city which has used the software will be compared to the half which has been operating as normal, in order to determine whether it has had a material impact. If it is successful it will be rolled out across the force.
Factors damaging property value
- Repossessions<p> Pre-recession, homeowners would give little thought to the idea that local repossessions could affect the value of their home. 101 repossessions were recorded every day during the third quarter of 2011 and it has become a real concern.</p>

- Crime<p> A new crime map introduced in March 2011 was welcomed by buyers, but approached with trepidation by homeowners concerned about the impact on local property values. The map allows users to view crime statistics online by postcode to find out the crime rates and types of crime in any area.</p>

- Local closures<p> It is widely recognized that schools with a good reputation increase competition and property demand within a local area, which in turn increases the values of property within the catchment area. Lose the school and the demand will cease too.</p>

- Flood risk<p> The devastation caused by flooding in recent years doesn't appear to paint a positive picture for homeowners faced with the financial and emotion cost of a huge clean up, insurance complications and the potential damaging effect on property values.</p>

- Transport<p> The proposed high speed rail link is depressing house prices for thousands of homeowners on the route and many homeowners feel helpless to stop tumbling property values.</p>










