Eyes Down For Royal Dutch Shell Plc's Results

Updated: 

Oil super-major Royal Dutch Shell (LSE: RDSB) (NYSE: RDS-B.US) is due to announce its annual results on Thursday this coming week (31 January).

The shares of this FTSE 100 behemoth are trading at 2,300p -- down 5% from a year ago compared with a 10% rise in the Footsie.

How will Shell's businesses have performed in 2012 compared with last year? And will the results justify the weak performance of the shares? Here's your cut-out-and-check results table!

FY 2011Forecast FY 2012Forecast FY growth
Revenue $470bn $467bn -0.6%
Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) $3.97 $4.19 +5.5%
Dividend per share $1.68 $1.72 +2.4%

Revenue

Shell has seen quarter-on-quarter declines in revenue through the first nine months of 2012, but analysts are forecasting revenue to strengthen in the fourth quarter.

Q1Q2Q3Q4 (forecast)
Revenue ($bn) 120 117 112 118

If analyst Q4 forecasts are on the button, revenue for the full year of $467bn will be modestly down on the 2011 number.

Earnings

Shell has done adjusted EPS of $3.13 for the first nine months of 2012, which is 2% down on the same period last year.

However, analysts are expecting the 2% nine-month lag to be reversed for the full year. The consensus forecast for Q4 is $1.06 -- well ahead of 2011's weak Q4 ($0.77).

The upshot of this much stronger Q4 would be Shell finishing 2012 with EPS 5.5% ahead of 2011. The full-year EPS number to look out for is $4.19 with the comparative being $3.97.

Dividend

Prior to 2012, Shell had paid out no less than 12 consecutive quarterly dividends of $0.42 per share. The dividend finally climbed above the three-year plateau in Q1 2012 when the company paid out $0.43. Further $0.43 dividends followed in Q2 and Q3.

Assuming the same distribution in Q4, the total dividend payout for the year would be $1.72 -- 2.4% ahead of the $1.68 paid out in 2011.

Unsure of Shell

Volatile energy prices continued through 2012, which -- together with swings in investor sentiment about the global economy in general -- made the market unsure of Shell and created short-term noise around the shares.

However, despite investor sentiment turning optimistic in recent months and Shell's share price having climbed a good bit, the shares are still down on the level they were trading at a year ago. That means, at the recent price of 2,300p, investors are paying less than nine times forecast 2012 earnings and getting a dividend yield of around 4.7%.

The oil super-majors are popular core holdings for many investors, and are currently trading on 'value' ratings. But if you fancy being a little more adventurous and want to learn about how to really strike it rich in the oil and gas sector, I recommend you download the Motley Fool's very latest guide, "How To Unearth Great Oil & Gas Shares".

This free guide for private investors is available for a limited time only -- so do hurry if you want an intelligent assessment of an area of the market with the potential to give you truly spectacular returns. The guide can be in your inbox immediately: simply click here.


Stock Quotes

Get Stock Quote

Get instant access to free stock quotes of your favorite companies, mutual funds, indexes, bonds, ETFs and other financial assets, as well as news headlines and top-level research information